China’s government bonds offer yields above 3% and the prospect of capital gains in 2020

The Federal Reserve may drop a hint on plans for the repo market in minutes of its December meeting, plus what it would take to shift the view among officials that interest rates are on hold all year. The closely scrutinized description of the Dec. 10- 11 gathering will be released at 2 p.m. in Washington on Friday. Thirteen of 17 officials forecast rates would be unchanged through the 2020 U.S. presidential election year, according to updated economic projections issued at the time. No one forecasts a rate cut through the end of 2022. (Bloomberg)

China’s government bonds, one of only two major sovereign markets to see price declines in the past year, now offer yields above 3% and the prospect of capital gains in 2020. The market is signaling the People’s Bank of China will lower its reverse repurchase rate about 20 basis points in the next three months, as the U.S. Federal Reserve leaves its benchmark unchanged. Global investors are positioning for a rally. Exchange-traded funds focused on China fixed income doubled assets over the past year with $4.2 billion of inflows. (Bloomberg)

U.S. President Donald Trump said he will sign the first phase of a trade deal with China on Jan. 15, sealing an agreement that sees the Asian nation raising purchases of American farm goods in exchange for lower tariffs on some of its products. The date has yet to be confirmed by the Chinese side. (Bloomberg)


Source: Danareksa Sekuritas Debt Research
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