U.S. volatility markets are showing a lack of confidence

China is still calling for the U.S. to roll back tariffs as part of any “phase one” agreement, as trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies drag on. “If both sides reach a phase one agreement, the level of tariff rollback will fully reflect the importance of the phase one agreement,” China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said. (CNBC)

U.S. volatility markets are showing a lack of confidence in the global bond reflation trade. After a huge rally over the first eight months of the year gave way to a sell-off on trade optimism, bond markets are yet to see a decisive turning point in the economic data. Recent moves are being driven by sentiment rather than a definitive trend in fundamentals. (Bloomberg)

A quick reversal in the bond market shows how easily investors can be spooked by doubts about a trade deal, and what it might mean if one does not materialize. Optimism for a phase one trade deal had helped drive yields higher, with the 10-year yield gaining more than 20 basis points last week to a high of 1.97% by Friday. But on Tuesday President Donald Trump reported no new signs of progress and said he could issue new tariffs if there’s no deal, deflating some of the expectations for an agreement. Trump was speaking to the Economic Club of New York. (CNBC)


Source: Danareksa Sekuritas Debt Research
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